Today I was bored and thought I'd try uncrating a first generation (most valuable) unusual hat using the crate spreadsheet to minimize my losses:
So basically by clicking on crates, I saw #1, #13, #14, #21 had a low average loss and also had first generation unusuals. I had been gathering those for a while. Today I decided to uncrate them since keys have kind of dropped and may be it was time to gamble a bit.
- On crate #13, it turns out I got 13 white paints (worth 2 keys) and 26 pink paints (worth 1 key). So that's roughly 65 keys worth of proceeds, but I also got 39 basic weapons. But basically the concept worked, I was minimizing my losses.
- On crate #14, similarly I got twice as many lime green (worth 1 key) as black paint (worth 2 keys).
- Crate #1 was yielding well on black and white paints.
- And #21 was yielding a lot of strange shotguns and miniguns.
So I've been uncrating and uncrating, and after 200 keys (yeah I wasn't very lucky), eventually the unusual came:
The first ever Sunbeams Dark Falkirk Helm. As expected it's a first generation effect. And it's the first one of that type/hat ever uncrated.
Basically in my uncrating I got the following items:
- Unusual Sunbeams Dark Falkirk Helm (first ever, no known price)
- 17 white (34 keys)
- 16 black (32 keys)
- 26 pink (26 keys)
- 18 lime (18 keys)
- 13 shotguns (13 keys)
- 10 miniguns (~10 keys)
- a bunch of hats and stuff worth 1.33 ref
66 keys spent for eventually uncrating Unusual Sunbeams Dark Falkirk Helm
Now you'll notice that I didn't count the crate prices, I've just collected for cheap on steam market for a while and don't remember their values anyway.
But in the end, the deciding factor will be how much is worth the Unusual I got, if it's worth more than 5 buds (and obviously it's going to be worth far more), it's a clear win even accounting for crates prices and all the small items in the 1 - 2 ref range I got from uncrating.
That's where first generation come into play, they're generally worth a lot. And the second part is the rarity, clearly here it's 1 of 1 in existence, and your odds of getting a 1 out of 1 are higher on first generation since there are so many new hats that were not available when the first generation crates were released.
Good luck uncrating for those of you who do, and be scientific about it and make sure you check the crate spreadsheet.
I've put this hat on Outpost to see what kind of offers I'll get, I'll keep you updated.